Convective Outlook: Mon 18 Feb 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Feb 2019

ISSUED 20:23 UTC Sun 17 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front will tend to straddle SE England for much of Monday daytime, only slowly clearing to the east. Elsewhere, an upper trough will slowly track eastwards across the British Isles, the associated cold air aloft atop relatively warm seas and diurnal heating inland helping to generate a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will affect Scotland, Ireland and northwest England, perhaps with a few isolated lightning strikes.


Elsewhere, a post-frontal trough is likely to be the focus for a line of showers to develop from NW England - W Wales - Celtic Sea on Monday morning, drifting eastwards across England and Wales through the remainder of Monday daytime. Low-level convergence and diurnal heating may enhance some of these showers during Monday afternoon, from Devon / SE Wales eastwards across the Midlands and central southern England, and into SE England by the evening. Instability is expected to be weak, and convective depth a little limited, but a well-sheared profile may be enough to compensate to produce a few isolated lightning strikes.

Increased ridging aloft from the west will result in a reduced lightning risk by Monday night across all parts of the British Isles.