Convective Outlook: Tue 05 Mar 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Mar 2019
ISSUED 19:58 UTC Mon 04 Mar 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper low west of Scotland will gradually fill and weaken through Tuesday. A slow-moving wrap-around occlusion will be the primary focus for any isolated embedded lightning during daylight hours, with weak instability overlapping strong shear.
A sharp upper trough will approach from the Atlantic on Tuesday night, drawing most low-level air northwards on its forward side beneath cool air aloft. Behind the main frontal precipitation, elements of embedded convection seem likely during the early hours of Wednesday, arriving from the Southwestern Approaches and creeping up the Irish Sea. Instability is marginal, but given steep mid-level lapse rates, upper forcing and reasonable shear, a few sporadic lightning strikes are possible.