VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 30 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 31 Mar 2019

ISSUED 20:44 UTC Fri 29 Mar 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Saturday, a surface cold front will sink slowly southwards from Northern Ireland / southern Scotland into northern England. Ahead, diurnal heating in a rather slack environment will encourage sea breeze development and hence zones of low-level convergence inland, while profiles moisten aloft. This, combined with marginal moisture pooling along these convergence boundaries (dewpoints 7-10C) may provide sufficient lift for a few isolated to well-scattered showers to develop on Saturday afternoon and early evening. Lack of any notable shear and rather weak instability suggests lightning is rather unlikely, and so should be treated at the lower end of our LOW threat criteria (5%).