Convective Outlook: Sat 06 Apr 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 06 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 07 Apr 2019

ISSUED 19:25 UTC Fri 05 Apr 2019


On the northern edge of the elongated upper low to the southwest of the British Isles, a shortwave will move northwestwards across the Celtic Sea and southern Ireland on Saturday. Elevated showers and one or two thunderstorms will be possible over the Scilly Isles initially, and over open waters to the south of Ireland during Saturday morning. 

... IRELAND ...
The associated cool mid/upper-levels with the aforementioned shortwave atop surface heating over southern and western Ireland will help generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE. However, main limiting factor is the fact that the shortwave is likely to move through before peak heating, so questionable as to how much of a favourable overlap will exist. Nonetheless, a few isolated showers seem possible for a time within a reasonably sheared environment, and hence at least a low risk of lightning.

... E ENGLAND ...
Towards the end of Saturday night (i.e. nearer 06z Sunday) remnant / weakening instability will drift across the North Sea towards eastern England, with the potential for a few elevated showers atop a very moist boundary layer (sea fog / low cloud quite likely). There is a very low risk of a few isolated lightning strikes with these showers, however given weak instability and very late arrival (it could be beyond 06z before any make landfall) for now we refrain from issuing any threat levels here.