Convective Outlook: Tue 09 Apr 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 09 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 10 Apr 2019

ISSUED 19:45 UTC Mon 08 Apr 2019


Frontal boundary will sink slowly southwards across southern Britain on Tuesday, bringing cloud and outbreaks of largely dynamic rain. Ahead, surface heating may be sufficient enough over SW England and SW Ireland for sea breeze convergence to aid in the development of a few heavy showers, especially combined with orographic forcing over the moors. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible as a result. However, this is dependent on sufficient cloud breaks and also the speed of the front approaching from the north.

If the front speeds up, the focus may shift to the immediate post-frontal environment with sea breeze convergence perhaps developing over southern counties of England behind the main rain shield, helping to generate a few isolated heavy showers. Confidence in this occurring is rather low though.