Convective Outlook: Thu 09 May 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 09 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 10 May 2019

ISSUED 06:02 UTC Thu 09 May 2019


UPDATE 06:02 UTC A SLGT has been introduced over SE England, and a low-end SLGT also across parts of Northern Ireland / N + E Republic of Ireland. Minor tweaks were made to the existing LOW threat areas

Broad upper trough covers the British Isles on Thursday, associated cool air aloft combined with diurnal heating helping to generate a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Low-level convergence will aid the development of scattered showers in a rather random fashion, primarily within the LOW threat area.

The most intense cells may produce a few sporadic lightning strikes - particularly across SE England and Northern Ireland / northern Republic of Ireland. Given somewhat weak shear and marginal CAPE, coupled with some concern over excessive cloud associated with lingering occlusion debris, have refrained from issuing any low-end SLGTs for now. In any case, there may well be several reports of funnel clouds / weak tornado given marked low-level convergence, ample surface moisture and relatively low cloud bases.