Convective Outlook: Sat 11 May 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 11 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 12 May 2019

ISSUED 20:13 UTC Fri 10 May 2019


Upper trough axis will be over the North Sea and Germany on Saturday, placing the British Isles on the rear side (and hence forward side of the approaching upper ridge). Residual cool air aloft, dry mid-levels and heating of moist low-level air, combined with orographic forcing and low-level convergence, will help generate a few scattered showers during the day, capable of a few sporadic lightning strikes and some hail in the most intense cells. There may also be a few funnel clouds.

In terms of lightning, the greatest risk appears to be over SE England, and to a lesser-extent over the Pennines and points southeast from there - a couple of low-end SLGTs have been introduced to better highlight the main areas of interest. Any showers/storms that do form will generally decay during the evening hours as daytime heating subsides, though may persist a little longer over the East Midlands as a PV filament slides southeastwards across the area.