|Convective Outlook: Sat 18 May 2019|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 18 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 19 May 2019
ISSUED 06:05 UTC Sat 18 May 2019br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Broad upper trough covers much of central and western Europe on Saturday. Provided sufficient cloud breaks develop, heating of a very moist low-level airmass will yield 100-200 J/kg CAPE. This combined with low-level convergence and orographic forcing will likely lead to scattered showers developing during the late morning / afternoon / early evening hours across many (largely inland) parts of England / Wales / S Scotland / Republic of Ireland. Weak shear, meagre instability and a warm nose acting as a cap at 700mb suggests the risk of lightning is rather low, but ample low-level moisture and slow-moving nature of showers could lead to some localised surface water issues.