|Convective Outlook: Wed 05 Jun 2019|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 05 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 06 Jun 2019
ISSUED 18:52 UTC Tue 04 Jun 2019br> br>
ISSUED BY: Chris
A broad upper trough will continue to persist to the west of the British Isles with a filling surface low over northern Scotland.
An occluded front bringing cloud and outbreaks of showery rain across northwestern Britain and Ireland will breaks up allowing insolation in the afternoon and this will help to generate 200-300 J/kg of CAPE. This meagre instability combined with surface convergence and some orographic lift could generate a few heavy showers. Like the last few days, overall shear is weak (a little better in the northern Scotland area) and profiles remain very moist, so lightning seems only a very low risk at this stage.