Elsewhere, diurnal heating will yield 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE with scattered showers developing, particularly aided by areas of low-level convergence. By the afternoon, dewpoints of 6-8C seem likely (GFS typically too moist).

A few thunderstorms will be possible - instability will be greater over Ireland (due to proximity to upper cold pool) but with weaker shear, so more "pulse-type" convection seems likely here, whereas over Britain instability will be less but with stronger shear on the forward-side of the upper trough, lending to slightly better cell organisation. As such, have issued a couple of low-end SLGTs to better highlight areas with reasonable multi-model agreement for a few sporadic lightning strikes.

Some uncertainty exists over Northern Ireland, depending on how much cloud may linger courtesy of the nearby wrap-around occlusion. However, the slack regime would support the development for scattered showers and/or a few thunderstorms should cloud breaks be sufficient for reasonable surface heating to occur - this area will need monitoring for a potential upgrade.

On Thursday night, a rapidly deepening area of low pressure will approach from Biscay, pushing frontal rain northwards across the English Channel into S / SW England. There may be some pockets of embedded elevation convection, but any lightning will probably fairly isolated.