South of this front, sufficient low-level moisture will exist (dewpoints of 11-13C) which combined with surface heating could yield a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Low-level convergence zone will likely provide the trigger for a few scattered heavy showers, particularly from midday and through the afternoon hours in a line from SW England northeastwards towards London and/or East Anglia. The environment will be reasonably well-sheared, allowing cells to become somewhat organised and capable of producing sporadic lightning and small hail. Given saturated ground from recent rain events, there will be a risk of some localised surface water flooding.

Main concern is somewhat limited convective depth, which may serve to inhibit much in the way of lightning. In fact, it is primarily the UKMO suite that consistently signals deep convection and heavy showers/thunderstorms, whereas most other model guidance appears rather lacking in any particularly noteworthy convection. For now have issued a low-end SLGT.

Any showers/storms that do develop will tend to weaken during the evening hours as daytime heating subsides, though some weak elevated convection may develop in a rather random fashion during the night hours over the English Channel and adjacent southern coastal counties, including the Channel Islands.