Convective Outlook: Fri 14 Jun 2019
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 14 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 15 Jun 2019

ISSUED 20:15 UTC Thu 13 Jun 2019


Showery rain will affect parts of England and Wales on Friday morning, associated with an occlusion straddling the area. As a shortwave and associated PVA overruns the frontal boundary, it will tend to weaken allowing increasing amounts of insolation to occur, coinciding with peak heating. Residual low-level moisture associated with the old frontal boundary will provide the main focus for scattered showers to develop, though somewhat limited in height by a marked dry intrusion above 650mb. This, combined with marginal instability, suggests lightning activity is rather unlikely. Forecast profiles exhibit strong unidirectional shear as a jet streak moves across the area during the afternoon, though much of the strong flow will be above the cloud tops.

Elsewhere, the environment over Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, with greater proximity to the upper low to the northwest of the British Isles, will have steeper mid-level lapse rates due to cooler air aloft. With potential for deeper convection, lightning is more probable with any showers that develop here - though still unlikely to be significant enough to warrant an upgrade to SLGT.