|Convective Outlook: Fri 14 Jun 2019|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 14 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 15 Jun 2019
ISSUED 20:15 UTC Thu 13 Jun 2019br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Showery rain will affect parts of England and Wales on Friday morning, associated with an occlusion straddling the area. As a shortwave and associated PVA overruns the frontal boundary, it will tend to weaken allowing increasing amounts of insolation to occur, coinciding with peak heating. Residual low-level moisture associated with the old frontal boundary will provide the main focus for scattered showers to develop, though somewhat limited in height by a marked dry intrusion above 650mb. This, combined with marginal instability, suggests lightning activity is rather unlikely. Forecast profiles exhibit strong unidirectional shear as a jet streak moves across the area during the afternoon, though much of the strong flow will be above the cloud tops.