Convective Outlook: Tue 09 Jul 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 09 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 10 Jul 2019

ISSUED 19:46 UTC Mon 08 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridging will reside over the British Isles on Tuesday - however, renewed pulses of warm advection will occur as deep moisture is advected from the subtropics. Extensive cloud and frontal rain will tend to slide east and southeast across northern Britain through this forecast period, traversing the northern flank of the upper ridge. Embedded pockets of elevated convection are possible, particularly over the Atlantic to the west of Scotland. Saturated profiles, weak instability and only subtle forcing suggests lightning is rather unlikely, but isolated strikes cannot be ruled out.