Convective Outlook: Tue 16 Jul 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 16 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 17 Jul 2019

ISSUED 20:48 UTC Mon 15 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper ridge over the British Isles will gradually flatten and recede southwards, while a shortwave slides eastwards along its northern flank. The net result will be some deepening of the boundary layer, but still with a marked temperature inversion serving as a cap to any notably deep convection. Orographic forcing and low-level wind convergence, combined with diurnal heating, may allow a few isolated heavy showers to develop, but in most cases not sufficiently deep for any lightning activity (and so considered very low or sub-5%). The main exception is E / NE Scotland where some deeper convection will be possible, posing the threat of a few isolated lightning strikes potentially.