The upper trough and associated PVA will spread eastwards across Ireland and into western parts of Britain, but as it does so it will encounter increasingly drier air and the higher surface pressure. The lift generated by PVA and very weak instability will allow for some embedded convection along the front across Ireland and western Scotland, although lightning is considered a very low risk. Ahead of the front across SW England, Wales and into N England and S Scotland there will be some weak mid-level instability. Upper air profiles are generally dry and warm in these areas, however given the steeper mid-level lapse rates we have introduced a very low end low risk of lightning if any showers develop.