Convective Outlook: Sun 01 Sep 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 01 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 02 Sep 2019

ISSUED 20:05 UTC Sat 31 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles and North Sea during Sunday, the associated cold pool across northern areas creating an environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Areas of showery rain may be affecting parts of W / SW Scotland and NW England during the morning, but this is expected to break up into scattered showers through the day. Elsewhere, numerous showers are expected to develop, particularly in response to diurnal heating inland. A few sporadic lightning strikes are possible, especially in E / SE Scotland and NE / E England during the afternoon hours where the deepest convection is most likely to occur - and a low-end SLGT has been introduced. Hail 1.0-1.5cm in diameter may be possible from the most intense cells.