Convective Outlook: Thu 05 Sep 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 05 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 06 Sep 2019

ISSUED 20:56 UTC Wed 04 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A few isolated showers will be possible on Thursday daytime, particularly feeding through the Cheshire Gap into the N + W Midlands, but in general limited convective depth and weak instability suggests the risk of lightning is very low. The next Atlantic frontal system will spread cloud and rain into Scotland and Northern Ireland on Thursday evening, sliding southeastwards through the overnight hours. Behind the cold front, cool air aloft overspreading warm SSTs will generate a couple hundred J/kg CAPE, with scattered showers then affecting Scotland and Northern Ireland which may produce a few isolated lightning strikes during the night - the risk generally greatest across northern Scotland and the Northern Isles.