VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 06 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 07 Sep 2019
ISSUED 20:35 UTC Thu 05 Sep 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
An upper trough will dig southwards across the North Sea on Friday, as the overall pattern becomes more amplified over the Atlantic with an upper ridge approaching from the west. Once again, a split cold front will sink southeastwards across England and Wales - leaving residual low-level moisture courtesy of a shallow moist zone (SMZ) to then be subject to some surface heating.
The surface cold front, with a notable wind veer and sharp dewpoint gradient, will be the focus for a line of heavy showers that may develop across the Midlands and eastern England. CAPE is a little weak, and convective depth somewhat restricted, and so lightning activity is questionable - but a few isolated strikes might be possible across the Midlands / Lincs / East Anglia as this line moves through in the afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds may also occur locally.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are likely in the post-frontal environment as cool air aloft overspreads seasonably warm SSTs. However, marginal instability and/or limited convective depth suggests that any lightning activity will be rather isolated.