Convective Outlook: Fri 20 Sep 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 20 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 21 Sep 2019

ISSUED 17:15 UTC Thu 19 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Most areas will be void of lightning through Friday and Friday night as upper ridging persists, only slowly retreating to the east. However, in doing so an increasing southerly flow aloft will encourage advection of an increasingly warm, moist low-level airmass from Biscay towards CS / SW England by the end of Friday night. This will be most marked in the 850-900mb layers initially, due to isentropic upglide.


Subtle forcing aloft coupled with moistening profiles on the forward side of the approaching largescale Atlantic upper trough may result in some elevated convection developing during the early hours of Saturday morning - but more especially after 06z (i.e. beyond the end of this forecast period). As such, only a LOW threat level has been issued for now.