Convective Outlook: Tue 24 Sep 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 24 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 25 Sep 2019
ISSUED 05:55 UTC Tue 24 Sep 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
A rather complex pattern will evolve on Tuesday, as a series of low pressure centres dumbbell around each other beneath a broader upper trough. The first low will be strongly forced, with an organised area of intense rainfall expected to swing northeastwards across England and Wales during Tuesday morning, with embedded sporadic lightning possible - and hence pinpointing specific areas where lightning is most likely to occur very difficult. However, with fairly saturated profiles, rather weak instability and marginal mid-level lapse rates, any lightning with this first area of rain will probably fairly localised. Nonetheless, strong gusts of wind will be possible, along with localised flooding.