Convective Outlook: Wed 25 Sep 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 25 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 26 Sep 2019

ISSUED 06:57 UTC Wed 25 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low over Britain will gradually fill and decay on Wednesday, but the residual cool air aloft combined with some diurnal heating may yield a couple hundred J/kg CAPE with a few scattered heavy showers possible in eastern England in particular. Convective depth may be somewhat restricted, but some increase in shear is expected during the afternoon hours as the upper trough moves away. Overall the risk of lightning is considered rather low, and should any occur it will likely be fairly isolated. The most likely area for this to occur is East Anglia.


Meanwhile, the next Atlantic frontal system will be pushing cloud and rain across Ireland and into western Scotland later in the day, sweeping eastwards across all other parts overnight. Behind the main frontal rain, a marked mid-level dry intrusion may aid in the development of a cluster of heavy showers, some perhaps sporadic lightning, during the late evening / overnight hours across parts of Ireland / Northern Ireland into W / SW Scotland, N Wales and NW England. The exact track of this feature, and hence areas affected, is a little uncertain.