Convective Outlook: Fri 27 Sep 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 27 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 28 Sep 2019

ISSUED 05:48 UTC Fri 27 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low will track slowly eastwards across NW Scotland during Friday, with a marked trough axis migrating from Ireland at 06z Friday to Denmark by 06z Saturday. This feature will aid convective development through the day, as a series of occlusions and troughs move eastwards across the Irish Sea / England / Wales. The overall setup is somewhat complicated by a mixture of both convective and dynamic rainfall.


Scattered showers will already be affecting parts of Ireland and the Irish Sea first thing on Friday morning, and are expected to develop fairly widely, organised into distinct bands at times. With cool air aloft atop warm seas and diurnal heating inland, this will yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE. Shear will tend to increase from the west during the afternoon hours, which combined will help organise convection at times. Sporadic lightning, small hail and gusty winds will be possible from the most intense cells. Given relatively low cloud bases and reasonable LLS, an isolated tornado is also possible.