Most models are in agreement for a convective cluster to drift eastwards from Somerset/Dorset at 06z to Essex/Kent by around 10z. While rather weak instability, fairly saturated profiles and limited convective depth suggests the risk of lightning is quite low, strong gusts of wind may occur with perhaps an isolated tornado.

By the afternoon, some cloud breaks may allow heating of the moist surface airmass. This may yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE, as drier air in the mid-levels overspreads this airmass. A few heavy showers could develop along the quasi-cold front (dewpoint change from 15-16C to 12-13C), aided by convergence along this boundary. It is questionable as to whether instability will be sufficient and/or convection deep enough to generate some lightning, and so for now we have refrained from issuing a low-end SLGT, but the area of greatest interest would be portions of East Anglia.