Convective Outlook: Mon 30 Sep 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 30 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 01 Oct 2019
ISSUED 19:52 UTC Sun 29 Sep 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper ridging will cover much of the British Isles through Monday daytime, suppressing deep convection - although showers will affect northern Scotland and the Northern Isles due to closer proximity to the upper trough over Scandinavia.
Meanwhile, the next Atlantic low pressure system will arrive from the southwest, with frontal rain spreading across much of Ireland, England and Wales. The cold front will have cleared most areas to the North Sea by midnight Monday night, but the frontal boundary will tend to straddle through the southern North Sea, eastern English Channel and Channel Islands for a few hours during the early hours of Tuesday. Convergence along this boundary, combined with a few hundred J/kg CAPE and a marked mid-level dry intrusion, may encourage pulses of deeper convection to occur, capable of producing isolated lightning strikes (generally offshore and into N / NE France due to the onshore flow). An isolated tornado may occur with this activity, including coastal parts of East Sussex and Kent.
Elsewhere, closer to the centre of the surface low, the cold pool aloft atop warm seas on Monday night will generate heavy showers and perhaps a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms around the coasts of S + W Ireland, then parts of the Celtic Sea into W Wales / SW England later in the night.
In both cases, a couple of low-end SLGTs have been introduced, but confidence on much in the way of lightning is not particularly high.