Convective Outlook: Tue 01 Oct 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 01 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 02 Oct 2019

ISSUED 20:15 UTC Mon 30 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low over the Irish Sea will drift gradually ESE-wards across England and Wales during Tuesday, becoming absorbed by the larger-scale upper trough over Scandinavia. At the surface, a slack pattern will evolve as an elongated area of low pressure slides eastwards.


Cool air aloft atop diurnal heating inland will yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE, which combined with low-level convergence and general large-scale forcing will aid the development of numerous showers, some electrified. The pattern becomes complicated due to areas of more dynamic rainfall in places, particularly across the north Midlands, north Wales and northern England. However, fairly saturated profiles casts some doubt over how much lightning activity there may be, but nonetheless a low-end SLGT has been issued where lightning is considered most likely.

Some small hail may occur in the most intense cells (1.0cm in diameter or so), and it is possible a few funnel clouds / weak tornado may also occur. However, the greatest threat will be localised flash flooding, given high moisture content (PWAT 24-26mm) and slow storm motion, leading to prolonged downpours on already saturated ground.