Convective Outlook: Sat 05 Oct 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 05 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 06 Oct 2019

ISSUED 08:14 UTC Sat 05 Oct 2019


UPDATE 08:14 UTC Extended LOW threat level northwards into western Scotland

An upper ridge will dominate across the British Isles during Saturday daytime, suppressing any notably deep convection. However, an Atlantic frontal system will spread erratically eastwards across Ireland into western Britain during the day, and farther east on Saturday night. An approaching upper trough over the Atlantic will disrupt and slide southeastwards, and the leading edge of this combined with a notable mid-level dry intrusion may engage with the cold front during the early hours of Sunday morning, perhaps encouraging pockets of elevated convection to develop over the English Channel and / or southern Britain during this time. Weak instability suggests the risk of lightning is rather low, but a few isolated strikes cannot be ruled out.

Behind the cold front, marginal instability will develop over the Atlantic on Saturday night as cool air aloft (associated with the approaching upper trough) overspreads warm SSTs. Scattered showers will affect the west coast of Ireland, which may produce the odd isolated lightning strike.