Convective Outlook: Mon 07 Oct 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 07 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 08 Oct 2019

ISSUED 21:11 UTC Sun 06 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Behind the cold front/occlusion, cool air aloft will eventually overspread the seasonably warm waters of the Atlantic, steepening lapse rates and generating a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers are likely to develop and affect western coasts of Ireland and Scotland through Monday evening and night, capable of producing perhaps a few isolated lightning strikes. Showers are likely to become more widespread for a time across Ireland, and later the Celtic Sea, as an organised trough (quasi cold front) moves through in the westerly flow. The environment will be well-sheared initially, and so scope for some strong gusts of wind around the showers on Monday evening.