Convective Outlook: Sat 12 Oct 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 12 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 13 Oct 2019

ISSUED 18:40 UTC Fri 11 Oct 2019


A broad southwesterly flow aloft covers the British Isles on Saturday, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary providing cloud and rain across southern England for much of the day. To the north, the cooler airmass will be characterised by scattered showers affecting many northern and western parts of Britain and Ireland, perhaps producing a few isolated lightning strikes.

On Saturday night, as a longwave trough over the Atlantic approaches, the backing flow will tend to push the frontal boundary over southern Britain gradually farther north, encouraging warm advection over NE France and towards SE England. This is likely to result in scattered elevated showers during the early hours of Sunday over NE France, which may pass close to SE England, posing the threat for a few lightning strikes. However, most (if not all) activity is likely to remain away from SE England, and so no threat levels have been introduced at this stage.