Convective Outlook: Sun 13 Oct 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 13 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 14 Oct 2019

ISSUED 20:54 UTC Sat 12 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather complex pattern will evolve on Sunday, with a largescale upper trough remaining to the west of Ireland, placing the British Isles under southwesterly flow aloft on the forward side of this trough. A surface low and associated frontal rain will slowly clear northeastwards from England and Wales, lingering across southern Scotland. However, the primary focus for deep convection (and lightning potential) will be largely over Ireland and adjacent seas, due to greater proximity to the cold pool aloft and hence a better overall environment with stronger instability (albeit just a few hundred J/kg CAPE) and steeper lapse rates.