Convective Outlook: Wed 16 Oct 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Oct 2019

ISSUED 19:54 UTC Tue 15 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper vortex over the Atlantic will slowly approach the British Isles, bringing the risk of scattered showers behind the main cold front as cool air aloft overspreads relatively warm seas. The bulk of the showers during this forecast period will be over open waters and adjacent coastlines, but will occasionally feed farther inland courtesy of the southwesterly steering winds.

Somewhat weak instability and limited convective depth suggests any lightning will probably be quite isolated - except perhaps western Ireland where much deeper convection, with an increase in instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates, will likely develop during the early hours of Thursday. However, given fairly saturated profiles (complicated somewhat by the passage of an occlusion, and general areas of showery rain) confidence is not particularly high for much in the way of lightning - but have introduced a low-end SLGT.