Convective Outlook: Fri 18 Oct 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 18 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 19 Oct 2019

ISSUED 21:19 UTC Thu 17 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper vortex, initially over western Ireland, will drift gradually southeastwards while filling during Friday, becoming centred near Wales by the end of this forecast period. The resultant cold pool aloft atop relatively warm seas will lead to widespread scattered showers and a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms, the showers generally most prevalent across open seas and adjacent southern and western exposed coasts, but feeding further inland at times due to the strength of the breeze and occasional troughs/occlusions helping to organise showers into distinct bands. Occasional, sporadic lightning will be possible, particularly close to exposed coastal areas where CAPE will be highest (400-800 J/kg). Hail is likely in many of the showers, generally small but potentially up to 1.5cm in diameter in the most intense cells, along with gusty winds.