Convective Outlook: Sat 02 Nov 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 02 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 03 Nov 2019

ISSUED 22:20 UTC Fri 01 Nov 2019


An upper low will track slowly across the British Isles on Saturday, with a very deep surface low migrating from the Celtic Sea across the Midlands to the North Sea by the evening. Early showers near southeast England may produce the odd isolated lightning strike. Elsewhere, a wrap-around occlusion will race eastwards across England and Wales, characterised by a band of rain. The risk of lightning with this feature is very low, with the most likely area considered to be Wales / Bristol Channel where instability, due to proximity to warm waters of the Irish Sea, will be greatest. An increase in deep convection is likely during the evening and night hours across the English Channel, feeding across the Channel Islands and close to the Sussex/Kent coasts - here a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible.

The environment across southern Britain will be strongly-sheared during Saturday daytime, with backed surface winds creating looped hodographs - however, instability is fairly meagre, which will tend to restrict the tornado risk.