Convective Outlook: Sun 03 Nov 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 Nov 2019

ISSUED 22:24 UTC Sat 02 Nov 2019


An upper low will sit over the British Isles during Sunday, gradually filling and eventually become absorbed into a separate upper low approaching Ireland from the Atlantic. The net result is an unsettled day with various areas of showery precipitation rotating around these features. Instability is rather meagre, which combined with somewhat limited convective depth the overall risk of lightning is considered very low, and for most places lightning is unlikely to occur.

A slightly better environment may evolve on Sunday night over the Celtic / Irish Sea into Wales / SW England, with steeper mid-level lapse rates and a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Here, better prospects for a few sporadic lightning strikes is expected, but unlikely to be widespread or frequent enough to warrant a SLGT. Nonetheless, one or two waterspouts may occur.