Convective Outlook: Tue 05 Nov 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Nov 2019

ISSUED 19:46 UTC Mon 04 Nov 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will slowly retreat southeastwards across France / BeNeLux / Germany during Tuesday. The net result is increased upper ridging and a gradual reduction in convective depth through the day. Hence the greatest instability (albeit still a little marginal) will be first thing in the morning, primarily over the English Channel and southern North Sea where a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible from scattered showers, but even this risk will tend to decrease through the day. Nonetheless, this type of setup has in the past yielded a few funnel clouds/waterspouts, and remains a possibility given slack, converging winds within the elongated surface low centre.