Convective Outlook: Wed 06 Nov 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 06 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 07 Nov 2019

ISSUED 21:51 UTC Tue 05 Nov 2019


The next Atlantic frontal system will spread bands of cloud and rain across many parts of the British Isles through Wednesday and Wednesday night. The passage of the second occlusion will be within an environment with a few hundred J/kg CAPE over the open waters of the Celtic / Irish Seas and English Channel, and this combined with engagement with the left exit of a mid-level jet is likely to result in an increase of embedded convection, and so a few isolated lightning strikes may occur during the evening hours - primarily over open seas, but also potentially close to coastal areas in the south and west.

The post-frontal environment is then characterised by more typical open cell convection, as cold air aloft overspreads the relatively warm seas - this primarily affecting the Celtic Sea, and then later into SW England / S Wales and the English Channel. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible from scattered showers in this regime during Wednesday night.