Convective Outlook: Thu 07 Nov 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 07 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 08 Nov 2019

ISSUED 20:22 UTC Wed 06 Nov 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An increasingly elongated, multi-centred area of low pressure will become slow-moving across the British Isles on Thursday, with a wrap-around occlusion providing a band of persistent rain on its northern flank over portions of Wales / Midlands / East Anglia / northern England and Ireland. To the south of the low, cold air aloft overspreading relatively warm seas will generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE, with scattered showers affecting many parts of the Celtic Sea and English Channel, feeding farther inland across southern England and south Wales. A few lightning strikes will be possible, primarily over open waters, and extending into the southern North Sea on Thursday night. This type of setup has in the past yielded a few funnel clouds/waterspouts, and remains a possibility given steep low-level lapse rates and converging winds near the elongated surface low centre.