Convective Outlook: Fri 08 Nov 2019
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 08 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 09 Nov 2019

ISSUED 19:44 UTC Thu 07 Nov 2019


Scattered showers are likely to be close to the coast of East Anglia and SE England, and across the Channel Islands, on Friday morning, aided by low-level convergence and with close proximity to the largescale upper trough over western Europe. However, as this trough weakens and edges away, increased ridging aloft combined with weakening instability suggests that the overall lightning risk, despite being fairly low initially, will become very low from Friday afternoon onwards.

Meanwhile, the next Atlantic frontal system will push cloud and rain across Ireland on Friday night, with increasing instability within the post-frontal regime expected to develop over western Ireland towards Saturday morning. As a result, scattered showers here may produce a few isolated lightning strikes late in the night.