Convective Outlook: Mon 11 Nov 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 11 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 12 Nov 2019

ISSUED 21:48 UTC Sun 10 Nov 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

The British Isles will be situated under an upper trough (particularly the axis and rear side) throughout Monday, the associated cold pool aloft atop relatively warm seas and diurnal heating inland creating an unstable environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and 300-600 J/kg CAPE over open waters. As a result, behind the main frontal rain - which will tend to linger over N / NW Scotland - scattered showers are expected fairly widely across Ireland, the Irish Sea and western Britain, feeding well-inland on brisk northwesterly winds. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, along with gusty winds and small hail.