Convective Outlook: Wed 13 Nov 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 13 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 14 Nov 2019

ISSUED 20:11 UTC Tue 12 Nov 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers will be feeding through the North Channel into SW Scotland, NW England and N + W Wales on Wednesday morning, but are expected to gradually weaken through the day. Elsewhere, showery bursts of rain will spread across Ireland and then into SW Britain, the post-frontal environment then yielding several hundred J/g CAPE with scattered showers and some sporadic lightning possible on Wednesday night - although this primarily over open waters of the Celtic Sea and English Channel. This is where the bulk of any (however isolated) lightning activity is expected during this forecast period. Such setups can occasionally produce a few funnel clouds and/or waterspouts.

Additional showers are also likely to develop over northern Scotland and eastern England, particularly overnight where they will tend to feed farther inland - but the instability and depth of convection probably too weak/shallow for much in the way of lightning.