Convective Outlook: Tue 17 Dec 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 17 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 18 Dec 2019

ISSUED 20:42 UTC Mon 16 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: null

A broad and rather slack upper trough will linger close to the British Isles during Tuesday, providing an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers will affect some western coasts, which may produce a few isolated lightning strikes.

During the afternoon and evening hours, the sharp trough axis will slide eastwards across the English Channel, with a few scattered heavy showers possible here, and advecting inland into other parts of southern England. The depth of convection will be shallower here, but given strong shear (and even hints of backed low-level winds) a few sporadic lightning strikes may just about be possible.