Convective Outlook: Wed 18 Dec 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 18 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 19 Dec 2019

ISSUED 09:43 UTC Wed 18 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Remnant instability associated with the cold pool that has lingered over the British Isles during the past few days will still be present across northern and western Scotland on Wednesday morning, before gradually clearing to the northeast. As such, isolated lightning strikes associated with showers will be possible initially, but the risk will decrease with time. 

Elsewhere, scattered showers are likely over portions of Ireland behind the main frontal rain during this evening, generally in an arc spreading northeastwards. Given the strongly-sheared profile, with looping hodographs and marked low-level jet, any convection that can become rooted within the boundary layer may exhibit some organisation / supercell characteristics - and as such, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Despite relatively weak CAPE, the strong shear and a marked mid-level dry intrusion suggests some sporadic lightning will be possible. 

Later in the night, an increase in deep convection and showers will evolve over the Celtic Sea, which may produce some sporadic lightning also. 

A low-end SLGT has been introduced, but confidence in coverage of lightning is not particularly high. It is possible an additional low-end SLGT may be required for parts of the Hebrides (such as Skye) for the overnight hours too, depending on how things evolve.