Convective Outlook: Thu 26 Dec 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 26 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 27 Dec 2019

ISSUED 23:41 UTC Wed 25 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

As an upper trough disrupts, with one piece drifting eastwards across southern Britain on Boxing Day, scattered showers may develop behind the main frontal rain in an environment with a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. The majority of showers will be located within the base or axis of the trough, where shear is typically weaker, and so the poor phasing of CAPE and strong shear on the rear side of the trough does not bode well for much in the way of organisation and hence lightning prospects. Given restricted cloud depth and fairly weak instability, we do not anticipate much (if any) lightning activity.