Convective Outlook: Thu 02 Jan 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 02 Jan 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 03 Jan 2020

ISSUED 21:11 UTC Wed 01 Jan 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

An active cold front will approach the Hebrides later on Thursday afternoon, with a sharp thermal gradient and wind veer. On the forward side of an approaching Atlantic upper trough, the environment will be strongly sheared. As a result, embedded line convection / LEWP seems likely within the main frontal precipitation, capable of producing squally bursts of rain and strong gusts of wind. Given strong low-level shear and weak CAPE, an isolated tornado may be possible. However, the risk of lighting is considered very low.

On Thursday night a cold airmass will advect over relatively warm seas, resulting in scattered showers across northern and western Scotland. As a result, isolated lightning strikes may occur - although the depth of convection is likely to be quite shallow in nature.