Convective Outlook: Wed 08 Jan 2020
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 08 Jan 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 09 Jan 2020

ISSUED 09:01 UTC Wed 08 Jan 2020


Cool air aloft across Scotland on Wednesday will create an environment with a a couple hundred J/kg CAPE, with numerous showers affecting many northern and western parts but pushing well-inland on strong winds. One or two isolated lightning strikes may be possible, but the risk is rather low in any one location.

Overnight, a frontal zone will head northwards across England, Wales and Ireland, associated with a surface low drifting northeastwards towards the Irish Sea. Some pockets of marginal CAPE may exist within the warm sector / close to the cold front, and more especially behind the cold front as a marked mid-level dry intrusion (and associated steep mid-level lapse rates) spreads across the Irish Sea / western Britain during the early hours. As such, a few sporadic lightning strikes may be possible, but most areas will likely remain void of lightning.