Convective Outlook: Sat 11 Jan 2020
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 11 Jan 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 12 Jan 2020

ISSUED 10:55 UTC Sat 11 Jan 2020


During Saturday the post-frontal environment will be characterised by cold air aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. As such, numerous showers will affect many northern and western parts, but feeding inland on strong steering winds and/or organised troughs/occlusions in the flow. The greatest risk of lightning will be towards the north and west of Scotland.

During the early hours of Sunday, an area of showery rain will drift across (southern) Ireland towards Wales, associated with a shortwave embedded within the brisk southwesterly flow aloft. The environment will be strongly-sheared (mostly uni-directional), and if any stronger convection can develop here there may be scope for some strong, damaging gusts of wind (similar evolution to 17th November 2016), and perhaps an isolated tornado.