Convective Outlook: Sun 12 Jan 2020
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 12 Jan 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 13 Jan 2020

ISSUED 06:32 UTC Sun 12 Jan 2020


A band of intense convection near west Wales first thing on Sunday morning, associated with a shortwave embedded within the brisk southwesterly flow aloft, will weaken as it moves inland across Wales / Midlands / northern England during Sunday morning, but may still pose the risk of isolated lightning strikes. Some strong gusts of wind and an isolated tornado remain possible with this feature.

Elsewhere, frequent showers will pile into western Scotland and the Northern Isles, in an environment with very steep mid-level lapse rates and 300-500 J/kg CAPE. Some sporadic lightning may be possible at times, particularly first thing on Sunday morning and then again for a time on Sunday evening, with a relative lull in activity possible during Sunday daytime. A low-end SLGT has been issued where lightning is considered most likely, but even here many places will probably remain void of lightning activity. The most organised cells will produce some hail and gusty winds.