Convective Outlook: Tue 14 Jan 2020
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 14 Jan 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 15 Jan 2020

ISSUED 08:41 UTC Tue 14 Jan 2020


Showers will persist across northwest Britain and northwest Ireland throughout Tuesday and Tuesday night, in an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. As such, some occasional lightning strikes will be possible, although the coverage and frequency is probably not significant enough to warrant a SLGT. Nonetheless, some hail and strong gusts of wind are likely, with snow on modest hills.

Elsewhere a secondary surface low will run northeastwards across the Celtic and Irish Seas this afternoon, and across northern England early evening before exiting to the North Sea. The strongly-sheared environment will allow line convection to develop once again along the cold front, particularly Wales / SW England second half of the afternoon, extending across the Midlands later in the day. Given some weak CAPE in the vicinity, it is possible a few sporadic lightning strikes may occur with this feature, although the main focus will be squally bursts of rain and strong gusts of wind. Such setups can occasionally produce brief tornadoes, especially given strong shear in the lowest levels and any breaks in the line segments.