Convective Outlook: Fri 17 Jan 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 17 Jan 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 18 Jan 2020

ISSUED 21:45 UTC Thu 16 Jan 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Friday, the associated cold pool creating steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers, perhaps merging to give some longer spells of showery rain, will drift eastwards through Friday daytime, even over inland parts, but becoming mainly confined to northern and western coasts by Friday night. Given a strongly-sheared environment with marginal CAPE, some sporadic lightning seems possible, with hail likely in many of the showers. However, the risk of lightning in any one location is not great enough to upgrade to SLGT.