Convective Outlook: Sun 26 Jan 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 26 Jan 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 27 Jan 2020

ISSUED 06:30 UTC Sun 26 Jan 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

An occluding frontal system will slide eastwards across the British Isles on Sunday. A minor wave is expected to develop along the front during the afternoon and evening hours, slowing its clearance across southern England. Increasing shear may allow elements of line convection to develop as a result.


The post-frontal environment will then be characterised by increasingly steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE, as a notable cold pool aloft approaches from the Atlantic atop relatively warm SSTs. Showers will become increasingly widespread on Sunday night, initially over Ireland, but also feeding into western Britain, occasionally organised into more distinct bands as troughs and occlusions move eastwards in the flow. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, particularly coastal parts of W / NW Scotland and NW Ireland. Given steep low-level lapse rates and some backing of the surface winds, an isolated tornado may be possible. Some attention is given to the Celtic / Irish Seas and W Wales / SW England for a few hours late evening / midnight where the environment may be favourable for some supercell characteristics with any convection that can become organised.