Convective Outlook: Sat 08 Feb 2020
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 08 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 09 Feb 2020

ISSUED 06:40 UTC Sat 08 Feb 2020


A band of squally rain is expected to develop late on Saturday morning, eventually approaching NW Ireland and W Scotland during the afternoon, perhaps producing some sporadic lightning over the Atlantic but is expected to weaken (lightning-wise) as it moves inland. As such, have tentatively introduced a low-end SLGT, but the main focus will be offshore to the west of these areas. Nonetheless, damaging gusts of 70-80mph will be possible with this feature as it moves into the Outer Hebrides in particular. CAPE will be rather weak by landfall, and profiles rather saturated despite strong shear, and so lightning activity is a little questionable.

Showers will follow this feature across N + W Scotland, and may produce a few isolated lightning strikes during Saturday night close to the Northern Isles. Elsewhere, during the early hours of Sunday some squally features may develop over parts of Ireland, tracking eastwards. The setup is rather messy, with widespread dynamic rainfall but also pockets of convection, making it difficult to pinpoint specific areas where lightning may occur. The overall environment will yield up to 500 J/kg CAPE towards the end of the night, with very strong shear. Nonetheless, should any linear features develop, strong gusts of wind may occur and a tornado cannot be ruled out (in an environment already producing 40-55mph from the background wind field). If confidence improves, we may introduce an additional SLGT.